客户型文化促进了企业创新吗?——来自中国制造业上市公司的经验证据

客户型文化是市场经济环境下企业重要的文化维度,是企业内部控制环境的组成部分,促使企业和客户之间的隐性契约得到较好地履行,有利于合作创新的开展.文章对客户型文化促进企业创新进行理论分析,并以2010-2017年A股制造业上市公司作为样本,实证检验了企业客户型文化对创新绩效的影响以及其中的中介路径.研究结果表明:(1)企业客户型文化对企业专利申请数有明显的促进作用;(2)降低大客户的波动性、增加客户的异质性和缓解企业的融资约束是客户型文化促进企业创新的中介路径.     

Context matters: How existing sectors and competing technologies affect the prospects of the Swiss Bio-SNG innovation system

Emerging technological fields are affected by developments in their broader context. This article proposes a differentiation of context structures as a crucial step in the analysis of technological innovation systems. A thorough context analysis, so the argument, is essential for understanding the pace and direction of technology development and the prospects of an emerging technological innovation system. Empirical insights are provided for Bio-SNG, a technology in an early stage of development. The article discusses the conditions under which actors from different sectors (forestry, wood industry, and energy supply) may play a role in the emerging field. It is shown that Bio-SNG is likely to become a victim of the recent boom in wood-to-energy technologies that has favored investments in more mature but technologically inferior alternatives. The case provides lessons for policy making as it highlights how effective support schemes might foster a lock-in into technologies that are readily available.     

Volatility forecasts and at-the-money implied volatility: a multi-component ARCH approach and its relation to market models

This article explores the relationships between several forecasts for the volatility built from multi-scale linear ARCH processes, and linear market models for the forward variance. This shows that the structures of the forecast equations are identical, but with different dependencies on the forecast horizon. The process equations for the forward variance are induced by the process equations for an ARCH model, but postulated in a market model. In the ARCH case, they are different from the usual diffusive type. The conceptual differences between both approaches and their implication for volatility forecasts are analysed. The volatility forecast is compared with the realized volatility (the volatility that will occur between date t and t + ΔT), and the implied volatility (corresponding to an at-the-money option with expiry at t + ΔT). For the ARCH forecasts, the parameters are set a priori. An empirical analysis across multiple time horizons ΔT shows that a forecast provided by an I-GARCH(1) process (one time scale) does not capture correctly the dynamics of the realized volatility. An I-GARCH(2) process (two time scales, similar to GARCH(1,1)) is better, while a long-memory LM-ARCH process (multiple time scales) replicates correctly the dynamics of the implied and realized volatilities and delivers consistently good forecasts for the realized volatility.     

Do foreign exchange fund managers behave like heterogeneous agents?

This paper estimates an Heterogeneous Agent Model (HAM) on currency trader indices to explain the large shifts in profitability in currency styles surrounding the global financial crisis. In the model, fund managers allocate capital conditional on recent performance to a value strategy, a momentum strategy, and a carry strategy. Subsequent estimation results reveal that (1) a large part of the behavior of currency managers can indeed be described by these three simple strategies, and (2) currency managers shift capital from recent winning styles to recent losing styles, and hence apply a negative feedback strategy. We finally show that a negative feedback strategy is indeed optimal, but currency managers could improve performance by applying it less aggressively if they were able to.     

金融集聚对收入增长的溢出效应及区域异质性研究

金融业的一个重要特征是金融集聚。本文基于2010－2020年我国31个省的面板数据,通过计算全国金融业的莫兰指数来确定金融三大产业银行业、保险业和证券业集聚的空间依赖性,运用空间杜宾模型研究金融集聚对收入增长溢出效应的区域异质性。结果表明,银行业集聚对三大区域收入增长的空间溢出效应显著为正;保险业集聚存在对东部地区与中部地区正向的收入溢出效应,对西部地区的溢出效应显著为负;〖JP+1〗证券业集聚存在对东部与西部地区负向的收入溢出效应,对中部地区的溢出效应为正但不显著。因此,差异化的政策引导与区域间协调的金融资源配置对区域收入稳定增长意义重大。     

基于累积Logistic模型的居民通货膨胀异质性感受的因素研究

通过调查问卷获取居民的通货膨胀感受及相关的个人特征等数据,运用累积 Logistic 模型,从心理层面和外部信息层面考量影响居民通货膨胀感受异质性的因素。结果表明,收入满意程度、食品价格、房租价格以及促销手段等是导致我国居民通胀感受异质性的主要因素。鉴此,政府应该提高收入满意度、稳定物价以及调节房价,以期降低通货膨胀感受的异质性。     

社会网络与民工工资：来自中国的证据

 本文基于来自中国22个省的农户调查数据研究了利用的不同社会网络对于不同的民工在城市劳动力市场上的工资水平的影响,结果发现：并不是利用所有的社会网络都能够提高所有民工的工资水平。首先,只有利用亲友关系找到的工作才能够得到更高的工资;其次,即使亲友关系也不能提高利用它找到工作的所有民工的工资水平,而只能显著提高女性和已婚民工的工资水平。所以,在研究中忽略社会网络和民工的差异性会导致错误的研究结论。本文有助于帮助理解中国的劳动力流动及社会网络在劳动力市场中的作用。     

Different strokes for different folks: A method to accommodate decision -making heterogeneity

Consumer decision making is complex and no single perspective offers a complete theory of consumer decision making. While the research community acknowledges that there is heterogeneity, homogenous choice models dominate consumer decision research. This paper provides insights from one method that was designed to accommodate decision -making heterogeneity. Computer process tracing methods can be used to observe different consumer decisions in one product category to understand what and how people choose. More than two-hundred and fifty decisions were observed in this research. Consumers were asked to select one of nine air conditioner alternatives described with six salient attributes. The research findings clearly reveal consumer differences. Specifically, the attributes and decision types used differed resulting in different product choices. This paper reveals how methods that accommodate decision -making heterogeneity can be used by retailers to inform product ranging decisions for categories.     

Analysis of sectoral credit default cycle dependency with wavelet networks: Evidence from Turkey

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between industrial production and sectoral credit defaults (non-performing loans ratio) cycle by wavelet network analysis in Turkey over the period January 2001–November 2007. We use feedforward neural network based wavelet decomposition to analyze the contemporaneous connection between industrial production cycles and sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales between 2 and 64 months. The main findings for Turkey indicates that industrial production cycles effect the sectoral credit default cycles at different time scales and thus indicate that the creditors should consider the multiscale sectoral cycles in order to minimize credit default rates.